Home/Compare Markets/Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 ✓ 85% matchpolitics2026 Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi 19 outcomes|2 platforms Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Dec 31, 2026 Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Dec 31, 2026 ⛓️ Also trading on Predict.fun Compare the odds on another venue Open on Predict.fun → Total Volume $99.85M Liquidity $3.39M Avg Spread 1.5pp Max Spread 7.5pp ?Since this was written, the market has moved further toward Nicolás Maduro — now ~79% (was ~60%). Live numbers in the table below. Both platforms still make Nicolás Maduro the favorite for year-end head of state despite his January 2026 capture and indictment in New York, but with a real gap: Polymarket prices him at 79% versus Kalshi's 60%, a 19-point spread reflecting different views on whether his continued legal claim to the presidency ("I am still president") outweighs Delcy Rodríguez's de facto control in Caracas.

Analysis written Jul 15, 2026 odds in the tables below are live ▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (19 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Spread N Nicolás Maduro 82%±0Buy 79%+2.0Buy 3.1pp spread D Delcy Rodríguez 10%—Buy 17%+5.0Buy 7.5pp spread M María Corina Machado 4%+0.8Buy 3%-2.0Buy 1.0pp spread Guaidó 3%±0Buy D Diosdado Cabello Rondón 0%±0Buy 4%±0Buy 3.6pp spread M Miguel Rodríguez Torres 2%±0Buy V Vladimir Padrino López 0%—Buy 4%±0Buy 3.5pp spread M Marco Rubio 0%—Buy 3%±0Buy 2.8pp spread E Edmundo González 1%±0Buy 2%±0Buy 1.2pp spread D Donald Trump 0%—Buy 2%±0Buy 1.8pp spread D Dinorah Figuera 0%—Buy 2%±0Buy 1.6pp spread S Stephen Miller 1%±0Buy N No Head of State 1%±0Buy - - Rodríguez 1%±0Buy 1%±0Buy 0.2pp spread F Frank Donovan 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.7pp spread R Richard Grenell 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.8pp spread P Pete Hegseth 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.5pp spread E Evan Pettus 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.5pp spread D Dan Caine 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Arbitrage Opportunity 7.5pp spread Delcy Rodríguez Buy YES 10%onPolymarket + Buy NO 83%onKalshi Cost: 93¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 7.5pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero). View all arbs Biggest Trades Across Platforms All whale trades → posell zhaoykon Edmundo González 89¢$9.7KJan 9 pobuy zhaoykon Edmundo González 84¢$7.5KJan 6 pobuy zhaoykon María Corina Machado 85¢$5.4KJan 6 posell zhaoykon María Corina Machado 85¢$5.4KJan 9 pobuy C48MIUTon Pete Hegseth 100¢$4.3KMar 27 posell C48MIUTon Pete Hegseth 100¢$4.3KMar 27 pobuy fomo18ion Frank Donovan 100¢$3.3KMar 9 posell fomo18ion Frank Donovan 100¢$3.3KMar 9 pobuy coucou34son Frank Donovan 100¢$3.3KMar 12 posell coucou34son Frank Donovan 100¢$3.3KMar 12 About This Market Background, methodology, and platform context Compare Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi.

Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 1.5pp. Close agreement often signals robust market consensus. With $99.85M in combined trading volume across 19 outcomes,



this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.

Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME]) Highlight differences Polymarket This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Kalshi

If [OUTCOME] officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Settlement Rules For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Delcy Rodríguez has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: Nominated, announced,



or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026 Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes. Under the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). Maduro satisfies (i) and (ii).

Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity.

The National

Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president.

Because

Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy "officially holds." Maduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies. This clarification reflects current facts.

If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts. AI Analysis High Match (105%) Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume $94.74M Liquidity $2.23M Trade Details Kalshi Volume $5.10M Liquidity $1.17M Trade Details Spread Analysis Delcy Rodríguez Kalshi higher than Polymarket 7.5pp 17% vs 10% Diosdado Cabello Rondón Kalshi higher than Polymarket 3.6pp 4% vs 0% Vladimir Padrino López Kalshi higher than Polymarket 3.5pp 4% vs 0% Nicolás Maduro Polymarket higher than Kalshi 3.1pp 82% vs 79% Marco Rubio Kalshi higher than Polymarket 2.8pp 3% vs 0% Markets matched across platforms with 85% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

📌 Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 (India)
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