Home/Compare Markets/US government confirmation of alien existence ✓ 99% matchpolitics2027 US government confirmation of alien existence: Polymarket vs Kalshi 8 outcomes|2 platforms Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Dec 31, 2026 Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Jan 1, 2027 Total Volume $66.54M Liquidity $12.61M Avg Spread 0.2pp Max Spread 1.8pp Polymarket and Kalshi are in rare lockstep here: Polymarket prices a 7% chance the US government confirms alien existence by December 31, 2026, and Kalshi's matching "Before 2027" contract sits at the identical 7%, despite the ongoing Pentagon PURSUE file releases and AARO reports that have repeatedly found no evidence of extraterrestrial technology. Analysis written Jul 10, 2026 odds in the tables below are live ▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (8 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Spread B Before Jan 20, 2029 22%-1.0Buy B Before 2028 16%±0Buy Y Yes 6%—Buy 7%±0Buy 1.8pp spread B Before December 5%±0Buy B Before November 3%+1.0Buy B Before October 2%±0Buy B Before September 1%-1.0Buy B Before August 1%±0Buy Biggest Trades Across Platforms All whale trades → pobuy human-on December 31 82¢$215.4KMar 19 pobuy timemachineeon December 31 84¢$97.0KMar 21 pobuy 1dadon December 31 84¢$48.9KMar 20 pobuy bobe2on December 31 84¢$42.0KMar 24 posell lckstrongon December 31 83¢$41.5KMar 31 pobuy DavidTrezegueton December 31 83¢$38.2KApr 1 posell timemachineeon December 31 84¢$37.2KMar 26 pobuy timemachineeon December 31 84¢$26.5KMar 24 posell timemachineeon December 31 83¢$26.4KApr 1 pobuy XVFlowon December 31 84¢$25.2KMar 24 About This Market Background, methodology, and platform context Compare US government confirmation of alien existence prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds,



with an average spread of just 0.2pp.

Close agreement often signals solid market consensus. With $66.54M in combined trading volume across 8 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets. Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME]) Highlight differences Polymarket This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Settlement Rules For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. AI Analysis Moderate Match (81%) Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume $36.30M Liquidity $553.3K Trade Details Kalshi Volume $30.24M Liquidity $12.06M Trade Details Markets matched across platforms with 99% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

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