Home/Compare Markets/Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ✓ 98% matchpolitics2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Predict.fun 55 outcomes|3 platforms Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Nov 7, 2028 Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Nov 7, 2028 Trade on Predict.fun Details resolves by Nov 7, 2028 ⛓️ Also trading on Predict.fun Compare the odds on another venue Open on Predict.fun → Total Volume $1.37B Liquidity $184.07M Avg Spread 0.5pp Max Spread 3.7pp Both Polymarket and Kalshi price the 2028 Democratic field nearly identically: Newsom leads at 19–20%, AOC and Ossoff cluster at 13–17%, and Harris holds 7–8%. The tight convergence across Kalshi's U.S. regulatory base and Polymarket's crypto-native, globally distributed traders suggests consensus that Newsom's executive profile and national visibility outweigh Harris's polling lead, while progressive challengers Ossoff and AOC have split insurgent support. Two-percentage-point gaps on Ossoff and minor variance elsewhere reflect identical market-setting across independent trader bases.

Analysis written Jul 8, 2026 odds in the tables below are live ▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (55 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Predict.fun Spread Gavin Newsom 19%—Buy 17%+1.0Buy 2.3pp spread Jon Ossoff 13%±0Buy 15%±0Buy 1.8pp spread Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13%—Buy 15%±0Buy 2.3pp spread Kamala Harris 9%±0Buy 10%±0Buy 8%—Buy 1.8pp spread Pete Buttigieg 6%—Buy 6%±0Buy 7%—Buy 1.2pp spread Mark Kelly 3%±0Buy 7%+0.7Buy 3.7pp spread Josh Shapiro 5%—Buy 5%±0Buy 0.4pp spread Rahm Emanuel 2%—Buy 5%±0Buy 2.6pp spread Andy Beshear 3%—Buy 4%±0Buy 1.1pp spread Ro Khanna 2%±0Buy 2%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Wes Moore 1%—Buy 3%±0Buy 1.2pp spread J.B. Pritzker 1%—Buy 3%±0Buy 1.5pp spread Jon Stewart 2%—Buy 1%±0Buy 1.3pp spread James Talarico 1%—Buy 2%±0Buy 0.5pp spread Gretchen Whitmer 2%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Michelle Obama 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Abdul El-Sayed 1%±0Buy - - M Mitch Landrieu 1%±0Buy - - Chelsea Clinton 1%—Buy - - - Hunter Biden 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Mark Cuban 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.9pp spread Chris Murphy 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.2pp spread Bernie Sanders 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.0pp spread Raphael Warnock 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Cory Booker 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Stephen A.



Smith 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Ruben Gallego 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.2pp spread Roy Cooper 1%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Elissa Slotkin 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Oprah Winfrey 0%—Buy - - - Barack Obama 0%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Zohran Mamdani 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Jamie Dimon 0%±0Buy - - Gina Raimondo 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Jasmine Crockett 0%±0Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Andrew Yang 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Hillary Clinton 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread John Fetterman 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Kim Kardashian 0%—Buy - - - MrBeast 0%—Buy - - - Phil Murphy 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Beto O’Rourke 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Jared Polis 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Graham Platner 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Tim Walz 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Liz Cheney 0%±0Buy 0%±0Buy 0.2pp spread E Elizabeth Warren 0%±0Buy - - Amy Klobuchar 0%±0Buy - - LeBron James 0%±0Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Abigail Spanberger 0%—Buy - - - Adam Schiff 0%—Buy - - - Josh Stein 0%—Buy - - - Hakeem Jeffries 0%—Buy - - - Alex Padilla 0%—Buy - - - Arbitrage Opportunity 3.7pp spread Mark Kelly Buy YES 3%onPolymarket + Buy NO 93%onKalshi Cost: 96¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution.

Gross spread 3.7pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero). View all arbs Biggest Trades Across Platforms All whale trades → kasell anonymouson Elissa Slotkin 100¢$178.2KJul 10 kasell anonymouson Graham Platner 100¢$167.2KJul 7 kasell anonymouson Gavin Newsom 83¢$41.5KJul 21 kasell anonymouson Kamala Harris 90¢$40.0KJul 26 kasell anonymouson Hunter Biden 100¢$39.9KJul 11 posell Snpeon Jasmine Crockett 99¢$36.3KApr 1 posell Snpeon Jasmine Crockett 99¢$36.2KApr 1 posell Snpeon Jasmine Crockett 99¢$36.2KApr 1 posell Snpeon Jasmine Crockett 99¢$35.9KApr 1 posell Snpeon Jasmine Crockett 99¢$35.5KApr 1 The 2028 Democratic Primary Field Background, methodology, and platform context Compare Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.5pp.

Close agreement often signals solid market consensus. With $1.37B in combined trading volume across 55 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.



The 2028 Democratic primary represents a wide-open contest with no clear heir apparent.

Prediction markets have been actively pricing the field since early 2025, and the volume reflects genuine uncertainty about who will carry the party's banner. Governors with executive experience—Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro—currently dominate the odds, though the race remains fluid. Market traders closely watch fundraising totals, state-level legislative victories, and early endorsement chains.

A single debate performance or high-profile endorsement can swing nomination odds by double digits within hours. This responsiveness makes prediction markets uniquely valuable during a primary season where the field can shift overnight. By tracking both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously, PredictMarketCap reveals price discrepancies between the global crypto markets and the regulated domestic exchange.

When odds diverge, it's often the earliest signal that new information is being priced in—before traditional polls or media analysis catch up. 2028 Election Center →GOP Nomination Odds → Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME]) Highlight differences Polymarket This market will resolve to “Yes” if [OUTCOME] wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Kalshi

If [OUTCOME] wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Predict.fun If [OUTCOME] wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. AI Analysis Moderate Match (64%) Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume $1.21B Liquidity $72.68M Trade Details Kalshi Volume $164.51M Liquidity $111.38M Trade Details Predict.fun Volume $57.3K Liquidity $13.8K Trade Details Spread Analysis Mark Kelly Kalshi higher than Polymarket 3.7pp 7% vs 3% Rahm Emanuel Kalshi higher than Polymarket 2.6pp 5% vs 2% Gavin Newsom Polymarket higher than Kalshi 2.3pp 19% vs 17% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Kalshi higher than Polymarket 2.3pp 15% vs 13% Markets matched across platforms with 98% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

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