Home/Compare Markets/2028 US Presidential Election ✓ 98% matchpolitics2028 2028 US Presidential Election: Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Predict.fun 53 outcomes|3 platforms Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Nov 7, 2028 Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Jan 21, 2029 Trade on Predict.fun Details resolves by Nov 7, 2028 ⛓️ Also trading on Predict.fun Compare the odds on another venue Open on Predict.fun → Total Volume $729.10M Liquidity $92.29M Avg Spread 0.4pp Max Spread 5.6pp Polymarket and Kalshi converge tightly on Gavin Newsom (12% on both) but diverge on the Republican race: Polymarket gives Vance a clear 6-point edge over Rubio (20% vs 14%), while Kalshi has them dead even at 17% apiece, consistent with recent reporting that Vance's numbers have slumped amid falling approval ratings and stalled Iran talks, letting Rubio pull level. Analysis written Jul 9, 2026 odds in the tables below are live ▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (53 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Predict.fun Spread J.D. Vance 20%—Buy 18%±0Buy 2.1pp spread Marco Rubio 12%±0Buy 18%±0Buy 5.6pp spread Gavin Newsom 12%—Buy 12%+1.0Buy 0.3pp spread Jon Ossoff 9%—Buy 11%±0Buy 9%—Buy 1.8pp spread Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%±0Buy 9%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Kamala Harris 5%—Buy 5%±0Buy 6%—Buy 0.8pp spread Ron DeSantis 2%±0Buy 4%±0Buy 2.7pp spread Pete Buttigieg 2%±0Buy 3%±0Buy 0.5pp spread Mark Kelly 3%±0Buy - - Josh Shapiro 3%—Buy 3%±0Buy 0.2pp spread Donald J.

Trump 2%—Buy 3%±0Buy 1.0pp spread Andy Beshear 1%±0Buy 3%±0Buy 1.7pp spread Rahm Emanuel 2%±0Buy - - Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%—Buy - - - Gretchen Whitmer 1%—Buy 2%±0Buy 1.0pp spread Tucker Carlson 1%±0Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Donald J.

Trump

Jr. 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.0pp spread J.B. Pritzker 1%—Buy 2%±0Buy 1.1pp spread Wes Moore 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.3pp spread Ro Khanna 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Hunter Biden 1%±0Buy - - Thomas Massie 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread James Talarico 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.4pp spread Michelle Obama 1%—Buy - - - Elon Musk 1%—Buy - - - Greg Abbott 1%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.5pp spread Glenn Youngkin 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.0pp spread Tulsi Gabbard 0%±0Buy 1%±0Buy 0.5pp spread Jamie Dimon 1%—Buy 1%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Ivanka Trump 1%—Buy - - - Pete Hegseth 0%—Buy - - - Nikki Haley 1%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.2pp spread Eric Trump 0%—Buy - - - Zohran Mamdani 0%—Buy - - - Vivek Ramaswamy 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Elissa Slotkin 0%—Buy - - - Kim Kardashian 0%—Buy - - - Stephen A.



Smith 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Tom Cotton 0%—Buy - - - Doug Burgum 0%—Buy - - - Josh Stein 0%—Buy - - - Rick Scott 0%—Buy - - - Hakeem Jeffries 0%—Buy - - - LeBron James 0%—Buy - - - Candace Owens 0%—Buy - - - John N.

Kennedy 0%—Buy - - - Abigail Spanberger 0%—Buy - - - Tim Scott 0%—Buy - - - Jalen Brunson 0%—Buy - - - Mike Johnson 0%—Buy - - - Adam Schiff 0%—Buy - - - Alex Padilla 0%—Buy - - - Tim Walz 0%—Buy 0%±0Buy 0.1pp spread Arbitrage Opportunity 5.6pp spread Marco Rubio Buy YES 12%onPolymarket + Buy NO 82%onKalshi Cost: 94¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 5.6pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero). View all arbs Biggest Trades Across Platforms All whale trades → pobuy 0xdab411ACE33b3c0c44E32EDC48FbfeB29E1cA27a-1768432863347on Elon Musk 99¢$82.0KMar 29 posell LTakeron Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 94¢$48.9KMar 28 posell LTakeron Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 94¢$32.9KMar 28 pobuy Gatedon Donald Trump Jr. 99¢$20.4KApr 1 pobuy Celestialaon Michelle Obama 99¢$16.3KMar 23 pobuy fkfdhfon Zohran Mamdani 99¢$15.5KMar 18 pobuy bhjcftdon Zohran Mamdani 99¢$15.5KMar 17 posell fkfdhfon Zohran Mamdani 99¢$15.5KMar 18 posell bhjcftdon Zohran Mamdani 99¢$15.5KMar 17 pobuy hjftyon Greg Abbott 99¢$15.5KMar 16 The State of the 2028 Presidential Race Background, methodology, and platform context Compare 2028 US Presidential Election prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun.

Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.4pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $729.10M in combined trading volume across 53 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.

As the 2028 US Presidential Election approaches, prediction markets are already pricing in the likely successors and challengers. Rather than relying solely on traditional polling, betting markets offer a real-time, financially incentivized look at political sentiment. On the Republican side, early volume heavily features figures like JD Vance and Ron DeSantis, while the Democratic ticket sees strong market activity around Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Josh Shapiro.





But tracking these odds across different platforms can be noisy—which is why we aggregate them. When looking at the live data above, you will frequently notice a "spread" or difference in the implied probability between Polymarket and Kalshi for the exact same outcome. This delta isn't a glitch; it's a reflection of distinct user demographics and liquidity pools.

A wider spread often indicates breaking news that has been priced into the faster-moving crypto markets but hasn't yet fully saturated the regulated domestic markets, or it simply highlights an arbitrage chance between the two ecosystems. Kalshi operates under the regulatory purview of the CFTC. Traders use US Dollars, and the platform generally limits participation to US citizens—creating sentiment driven strictly by domestic capital.

Polymarket is a decentralized, crypto-native platform where contracts settle in USDC stablecoins. It draws global liquidity and often sees much higher trading volumes, capturing international sentiment regarding US politics. View full 2028 Election Center with all nomination odds → Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME]) Highlight differences Polymarket The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Kalshi

If [OUTCOME] is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Predict.fun If [OUTCOME] is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. AI Analysis Low Match (44%) Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume $673.73M Liquidity $52.52M Trade Details Kalshi Volume $55.22M Liquidity $39.65M Trade Details Predict.fun Volume $153.2K Liquidity $130.0K Trade Details Spread Analysis Marco Rubio Kalshi higher than Polymarket 5.6pp 18% vs 12% Ron DeSantis Kalshi higher than Polymarket 2.7pp 4% vs 2% J.D.

Vance

Polymarket higher than Kalshi 2.1pp 20% vs 18% Markets matched across platforms with 98% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

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