Home/Compare Markets/2026 United States Congressional Elections ✓ 85% matchpolitics2026 2026 United States Congressional Elections: Polymarket vs Kalshi 2 outcomes|2 platforms Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Nov 30, 2026 Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Feb 1, 2027 Total Volume $19.29M Liquidity $11.83M Avg Spread 5.0pp Max Spread 10.0pp ⚠️This analysis predates a shift — Yes now leads. The live table below has current odds. Both Polymarket (76%) and Kalshi (82%) price Democrats as clear favorites to control Congress after the Nov. 3 election, with Kalshi's six-point premium reflecting its later resolution date (Feb. 1 vs.

Nov. 30), allowing more time for final vote counts and potential recounts. The tight 6-point cross-platform gap signals agreement on the base outcome despite differing settlement windows, grounded in Democratic advantages from midterm headwinds and their need for only three net House seats while Republicans have little margin for error. Analysis written Jul 8, 2026 odds in the tables below are live ▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (2 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Spread Yes 73%-0.5Buy 83%-1.0Buy 10.0pp spread No 17%±0Buy Arbitrage Prospect 10.0pp spread Yes Buy YES 73%onPolymarket + Buy NO 17%onKalshi Cost: 90¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution.

Gross spread 10.0pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero). View all arbs Biggest Trades Across Platforms All whale trades → kasell anonymouson Republican Party 84¢$14.8KJul 23 kasell anonymouson Republican Party 84¢$8.5KJul 27 kabuy anonymouson Republican Party 17¢$6.6KJul 23 kasell anonymouson Republican Party 82¢$6.6KJul 14 kasell anonymouson Republican Party 84¢$6.2KJul 23 kasell anonymouson Republican Party 84¢$5.1KJul 23 kabuy anonymouson Republican Party 17¢$3.4KJul 23 kasell anonymouson Republican Party 84¢$3.1KJul 27 kabuy anonymouson Republican Party 17¢$2.9KJul 23 kabuy anonymouson Republican Party 17¢$2.8KJul 28 About This Market Background, methodology, and platform context Compare 2026 United States Congressional Elections prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms currently disagree by an average of 5.0pp, with the largest spread reaching 10.0pp.

These price differences can signal arbitrage opportunities or reflect different trader sentiment. With $19.29M in combined trading volume across 2 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets. Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME]) Highlight differences Polymarket This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf Kalshi If the [OUTCOME] has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Settlement Rules

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027. AI Analysis Low Match (34%) Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume $50.8K Liquidity $13.7K Trade Details Kalshi Volume $19.23M Liquidity $11.81M Trade Details Spread Analysis Yes Kalshi higher than Polymarket 10.0pp 83% vs 73% Markets matched across platforms with 85% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

📌 2026 United States Congressional Elections (India)
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