Home/Compare Markets/US government confirmation of alien existence

✓ 99% matchpolitics2027

US government confirmation of alien existence: Polymarket vs Kalshi

8 outcomes|2 platforms

Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Dec 31, 2026

Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Jan 1, 2027

Total Volume

$66.54M

Liquidity

$12.61M

Avg Spread

0.2pp

Max Spread

1.8pp

Polymarket and Kalshi are in rare lockstep here: Polymarket prices a 7% chance the US government confirms alien existence by December 31, 2026, and Kalshi's matching "Before 2027" contract sits at the identical 7%, despite the ongoing Pentagon PURSUE file releases and AARO reports that have repeatedly found no evidence of extraterrestrial technology.

Analysis written Jul 10, 2026

- odds in the tables below are live

▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (8 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder Cross-Platform Odds Comparison

Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Spread

B

Before Jan 20, 2029

22%-1.0Buy

B

Before 2028

16%±0Buy

Y

Yes

6%—Buy

7%±0Buy

1.8pp spread

B

Before December

5%±0Buy

B

Before November

3%+1.0Buy

B

Before October

2%±0Buy

B

Before September

1%-1.0Buy

B

Before August

1%±0Buy

Biggest Trades Across Platforms

All whale trades →

pobuy

- human-on December 31

82¢$215.4KMar 19 pobuy timemachineeon December 31

84¢$97.0KMar 21

pobuy

1dadon December 31

84¢$48.9KMar 20

pobuy bobe2on December 31

84¢$42.0KMar 24

posell lckstrongon December 31

83¢$41.5KMar 31

pobuy

DavidTrezegueton December 31

83¢$38.2KApr 1

posell timemachineeon December 31

84¢$37.2KMar 26

pobuy timemachineeon December 31

84¢$26.5KMar 24

posell timemachineeon December 31

83¢$26.4KApr 1

pobuy

XVFlowon December 31

84¢$25.2KMar 24

About This Market Background, methodology, and platform context

Compare US government confirmation of alien existence prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi.



Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.2pp. Close agreement often signals robust market consensus. With $66.54M in combined trading volume across 8 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.

Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])

Highlight differences

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Settlement Rules For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

AI Analysis

Moderate Match (81%)

Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume

$36.30M

Liquidity

$553.3K

Trade Details

Kalshi

Volume

$30.24M

Liquidity

$12.06M

Trade Details

Markets matched across platforms with 99% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

📌 US government confirmation of alien existence (Chandigarh)
🏢 PredictMarketCap
📍 Chandigarh