Home/Compare Markets/Acquisition of Greenland by the United States

✓ 85% matchpolitics2027

Acquisition of Greenland by the United States: Polymarket vs Kalshi

2 outcomes|2 platforms

Trade on Polymarket Details resolves by Dec 31, 2026

Trade on Kalshi Details resolves by Jan 21, 2029

Total Volume

$38.43M

Liquidity

$775.7K

Avg Spread

0.5pp

Max Spread

1.0pp

Both platforms largely agree on the near-term outcome: Polymarket's "before 2027" contract sits at 4% versus Kalshi's equivalent at 6%, a modest gap reflecting the same skepticism that a formal U.S. acquisition of Greenland happens this year despite Trump's repeated demands. Kalshi's longer-dated contract (before January 21, 2029) prices in 23%, which is structurally higher simply because it spans Trump's full second term rather than just the next few months, giving diplomacy or a "framework of a future deal" floated after Trump's Davos meeting with NATO's Rutke more time to materialize.

Analysis written Jul 22, 2026

- odds in the tables below are live

▸ Show full contract ladder & live odds (2 rungs)▾ Hide full contract ladder

Cross-Platform Odds Comparison

Outcome Polymarket Kalshi Spread

Before January 21, 2029

26%+2.0Buy

Yes

4%—Buy

5%±0Buy

1.0pp spread

Biggest Trades Across Platforms

All whale trades →

posell

ChampaLiberationon Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

90¢$56.5KMar 29

posell

0x95fa15713Ef063E3ad04EE87df5E8adFBE44BF65-1746326654160on Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

8¢$10.5KMar 19

pobuy

Hyperlongon Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$6.8KMar 25

pobuy mayoshion Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$5.1KMar 29

posell davisb12on Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$4.5KMar 27





posell cqson Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$4.5KMar 20

posell suraxyon Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

90¢$4.0KMar 30

pobuy steve1592on Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$4.0KMar 28

pobuy

DFKon Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

91¢$3.8KMar 29

posell

Tenebrus7on Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

90¢$3.4KMar 17

About This Market

Background, methodology, and platform context

Compare Acquisition of Greenland by the United States prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.5pp. Close agreement often signals robust market consensus. With $38.43M in combined trading volume across 2 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.

Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])

Highlight differences

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory,



or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Kalshi

If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Settlement Rules An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

AI Analysis

Low Match (41%)

Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.

Polymarket

Volume

$35.13M

Liquidity

$230.0K

Trade Details

Kalshi

Volume

$3.30M

Liquidity

$545.8K

Trade Details

Markets matched across platforms with 85% confidence. This match has not been human-verified. Odds and spreads update every 30 minutes.

📌 Acquisition of Greenland by the United States (Chandigarh)
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